Kev tshuaj xyuas ntawm Cov Uas Tom Qab Lub Rau Hli Freight Rate Surge ntawm Tuam Tshoj -Africa Shipping Routes

Ntawm ntau ntu cuam tshuam los ntawm cov nthwv dej tam sim no ntawm kev nce nqi thauj khoom hiav txwv, Tuam Tshoj -African txoj kev sawv tawm rau nws qhov tseem ceeb "late-mover kom zoo dua" thiab muaj peev xwm loj hlob tawg. Cov kev lag luam tam sim no nthuav tawm cov qauv sib txawv: North Africa yog thawj tus nqi nce siab, West Africa tab tom muaj qhov ntse ntse, East Africa tau pom kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua, thiab South Africa tab tom nce mus rau nruab nrab. Lub Rau Hli tau cim txog qhov tuaj txog ntawm qhov tseeb tshiab ntawm kev nce qib nce thoob plaws hauv pawg thawj coj.

(I) Kev Xav Tau: Txoj Cai Sib Koom Ua ke nrog rau Lub Caij Nyoog Thaum Ntxov Tsav Kev Loj Hlob Loj hauv Cargo Volume
1. Kev Ua Haujlwm Zero-Txoj Cai Tswjfwm Ntiag Tug: Pib Lub Tsib Hlis 2026, Tuam Tshoj tau siv txoj cai xoom-tariff txoj cai npog 100% ntawm tariff kab rau 53 lub tebchaws African uas nws tswj hwm kev sib raug zoo ntawm kev sib raug zoo, yog li nthuav tawm qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam ob sab. Kev xa tawm hauv tsev-tshwj xeeb yog cov khoom tseem ceeb xws li cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob photovoltaic, lub zog tshiab, thiab cov ntaub ntawv tsim kho vaj tse- tau pom qhov nce ntawm cov khoom ntim. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, African ntshuam cov zaub mov thiab cov khoom ua liaj ua teb rau hauv Suav teb tau loj hlob ntau, ua rau lub xyoo tseem ceeb - ntawm - xyoo nthuav dav hauv tag nrho cov nplai ntawm kev lag luam ob sab.
2. Kev Tshaj Tawm Tshaj Tawm ntawm Cov Txheej Txheem Kev Txhim Kho hauv Africa: Ntau lub tebchaws thoob plaws sab hnub poob thiab North Africa tau nkag mus rau lawv lub caij nyoog rau kev tsim kho vaj tse. Yog li ntawd, kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv tseem ceeb-xws li kev tsim kho tshuab, hlau, cement, thiab kav dej- tau pom xyoo- ntawm- xyoo kev loj hlob ntau dua 30%, uas cuam tshuam txog kev tso tawm tsis tu ncua ntawm kev thov rau cov kev pabcuam thauj khoom.
3. Thaum Ntxov Txog Lub Caij Nyoog Nroj Tsuag: Muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev hloov pauv thoob ntiaj teb cov saw hlau, qee qhov kev txiav txim thawj zaug rau Tebchaws Europe thiab Asmeskas tau hloov mus rau Africa. Qhov kev hloov pauv no- ua ke nrog cov khw muag khoom African koom nrog cov khoom muag thaum ntxov ua ntej lub xyoo- xaus lub caij so- tau ua rau lub caij thauj khoom thauj ib txwm muaj (feem ntau tshwm sim thaum Lub Xya Hli thiab Lub Yim Hli) los txog thaum ntxov lub Tsib Hlis thiab Lub Rau Hli. Qhov kev nce siab ntxiv hauv cov khoom ntim tau cuam tshuam tag nrho cov khoom siv -xav kom sib npaug feem ntau yog tus yam ntxwv ntawm lub caij tawm -.

(II) Kev Pabcuam Sab Nraud: Kev cuam tshuam ntawm Hiav Txwv Liab Liab Ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj hauv kev xa khoom zoo
1. Txoj Kev Hloov Pauv Tsis Muaj Peev Xwm Shipping: Raws li Hiav Txwv Liab ntsoog nce ntxiv, feem coob ntawm cov nkoj khi rau North Africa-los yog cov hla Hiav Txwv Liab- tau raug yuam kom hloov lawv txoj kev ncig ntawm Cape of Good Hope. Qhov kev hloov pauv no ntxiv 10 mus rau 14 hnub rau txhua lub nkoj kev caij nkoj, txo cov nkoj xa mus los ntawm 30% thiab txo qhov zaus ntawm kev caij nkoj txhua hli. Yog li ntawd, lub peev xwm thauj khoom zoo muaj nyob rau ntawm North African txoj kev tau raug txo ncaj qha los ntawm kwv yees li 25%.
2. Muaj peev xwm loj hlob Lags Tom qab Cargo Volume Loj hlob: Txawm hais tias cov neeg nqa khoom loj thauj khoom tau qhia ntau txoj kev ncaj qha mus rau West Africa, qhov ntsuas ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab no tseem nyob deb tsis txaus kom haum rau qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, kev ua lag luam txuas ntxiv ua haujlwm nyob rau hauv lub xeev qhov kev xav tau ntau dhau ntawm cov khoom siv . 3. ** Kev Tswj Xyuas Lub Peev Xwm Zoo thiab Nchuav Sailings los ntawm Carriers:** Txij lub Tsib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli, qhov kev caij nkoj dawb huv ntawm Tuam Tshoj - Africa txoj kev tseem nyob hauv thaj tsam 5%–8%. Peb lub tuam txhab loj tshaj plaws -MSC, Maersk, thiab CMA CGM- uas suav nrog ntau dua 70% ntawm kev ua lag luam muaj peev xwm, ua kom muaj zog ntxiv los ntawm kev sib koom tes tswj kev muaj peev xwm thiab kev caij nkoj los txhawb kev nce nqi thauj khoom.

(III) Tus Nqi Them Nqi: Ntau tus nqi sib xyaw ua ke tsav tus nqi thauj khoom
1. Tus nqi roj nce: Kev ntxhov siab hauv Middle East thaj chaw thaj chaw thaj chaw tau ua rau cov nqi roj thoob ntiaj teb nce, ua rau 12%–15% lub hli- dhau- hli nce hauv Bunker Adjustment Factors (BAF) ntawm cov kev no. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, cov nkoj rov qab los ntawm Cape of Good Hope tau txais ntau dua 30% hauv kev siv roj ntxiv, ua rau muaj kev nce siab hauv cov neeg nqa khoom cov nqi khiav haujlwm.
2. Tsawg Efficiency thiab hnyav congestion ntawm African Ports: Core ports nyob rau hauv West Africa-xws li Lagos thiab Abidjan- muaj kev mob congestion, ua rau qeeb ntawm 3 mus rau 5 hnub. Hauv North Africa, cov chaw nres nkoj zoo li Algiers thiab Port Said raug kev txom nyem los ntawm cov txheej txheem kev lis kev cai cumbersome thiab kev ua haujlwm tsis zoo, ua rau lub nkoj nruab nrab qeeb ntawm 3 mus rau 7 hnub; qhov no tau ua rau muaj kev nce ntxiv hauv cov nqi demurrage, nqi chaw nres nkoj, thiab cov nqi raug kaw.
3. Cov Nyiaj Them Nqi Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Tawm: Cov kev pheej hmoo nyab xeeb nyob hauv Hiav Txwv Liab txoj kab kev thauj khoom thiab thaj chaw tsis muaj kev ruaj ntseg hauv thaj tsam ntawm West Africa tau ua rau cov neeg nqa khoom nce nqi ntxiv rau kev pheej hmoo ua tsov rog ntxiv thiab kev pheej hmoo piracy surcharges, ntxiv rau kev tsav tsheb thauj khoom zaum kawg.

(IV) Sab Nraud: Kev lag luam siab siab thiab muaj zog thauj khoom nqi zog
Tam sim no, muaj ntau dua 50 txoj kev xa khoom ncaj qha txuas Tuam Tshoj mus rau Africa; Txawm li cas los xij, kev ua lag luam muaj peev xwm tseem muaj zog heev. Peb lub tuam txhab ua lag luam -MSC, Maersk, thiab CMA CGM- monopolize ntau dua 70% ntawm cov peev txheej muaj peev xwm, tsim kom muaj kev lag luam ib puag ncig zoo rau kev sib koom ua lag luam nce nqi. Cov khoom me me thiab nruab nrab- cov neeg xa khoom loj thiab cov tswv lag luam muaj peev xwm sib tham tau tsawg; Yog li ntawd, cov nqi thauj khoom nce sai sai hauv cov lus teb rau kev ua lag luam, thaum cov nqi cog lus ua raws li kev sib tw nce, tsim kom muaj lub voj voog tsis zoo uas yog "scrambling rau qhov chaw- nce nqi- thiab scrambling rau qhov chaw dua."